Sergey Lebedenko

Ukrainian chaos: randomness or mathematical calculation

Ukrainian chaos: randomness or mathematical calculation

At one time, in 2008, I participated in an interview with a candidate for the position of Director General of one of the Ukrainian corporations. The interviewee turned out to be a very interesting person, not only looking perfect, dressed fashionably and expensively, but also a very intelligent and educated person. The biography of the person was also interesting - some inconsistencies voiced by the security service made our conversation counterpart a little during the interview. It turned out that after graduation, the applicant worked for a long time at the SRI Research Institute of the Ministry of Defense of the USSR in one of the northern cities of the USSR. In the early 80s, he worked in a group that investigated the degree of instability in the republics of the Soviet Union. The result of these studies was the report of the Politburo of the CPSU, which indicated the most dangerous republic in the likelihood of destabilization. And according to the interlocutor, according to the calculations, it turned out to be Ukraine. This is from all 15 republics, not counting autonomies and individual national districts. If you imagine 2008 and the apparent reinforced concrete stability of Ukraine, when the next world crisis hardly touched it, when the questions of the familiar Moscow bankers were still fresh in memory, how Ukraine manages to develop its economy without natural resources, then the above said sounded fantastic. I was curious to know the details of the research methodology. After questioning the interlocutor, it turned out that the studies were carried out using field theory.

Without going into details, it is clear that no matter what mathematical model of the social process is chosen, the main factors in it will be instability, the exact choice of which will not overload the mathematical core of the model. From memory, he voiced similar factors: significant national heterogeneity, different mentality of the east and west of the country, religious heterogeneity, consumer dissatisfaction, accumulated managerial dissatisfaction. In general, there were so many of the listed factors that when modeling “head on” with the help of a system of differential equations, the latter turn out to be of the fifth order, with no solution. That's why I did not believe this person then. Maybe in vain, maybe they solved this problem in another way. A chain of subsequent events in Ukraine subsequently confirmed the veracity of the above. Perhaps it was necessary to ask about the mentioned “field theory” - the term is quite general and is often used in conversation to make a “fool”.

At one time, I gained experience in solving a fourth-order differential equation, which also does not have a “direct” solution.

Under the threat of deprivation of the increased scholarship, in the fourth year of KhAI the dean’s office unconditionally handed in a special course project entitled “Calculation of the error of positioning of the artificial Earth satellite by the robot-manipulator of the Buran orbital system”.

Protests that aviation “engines” are not “rocketers” of the fourth faculty were not heard. At that time, the Buran space program was being intensively developed in the country, and many difficult tasks were handed out to leading departments at leading universities and from there the dean’s office was already distributing “zealous” students in the form of course projects as a “punishment”. Unable to cope with such tasks, which were clearly not of a student level, most often “oppositionists” the dean’s office was usually lowered below at some meeting of the course. The calculation was understandable - so they say, and so that you are an “anti-leader”, the threat of the dictatorship of the dean’s office is so stupid, didn’t solve the fourth-order differential equation? And the one who supports his "right to download" is even dumber. The catch is that 90% of students even from a technical university simply do not know that it is not solvable in a general way.

There was at that time such a sophisticated way of punishing the objectionable.

The situation seemed hopeless, the only method of approximating the parameters that existed at that time was not available to the poor student due to the lack of a powerful computer and a team of programmers.

So, being in a three-month comprehension of the “insidious” manipulator, I realized that I was simply “made”. But, having learned that the charge for nightly unloading a wagon is a maximum of 10 rubles, night duty in the morgue is 10 rubles, HZSHV and the tobacco factory, although 10 rubles, with possible in-kind bonuses, but did not stick in there (employment was controlled by the powerful lobby) - decided to go till the end with calculations of the positioning error of satellites put into orbit by “Buran”.

Hope appeared when I came up with the idea of equating the Mohr’s triple integral with the graph-analytical calculation of the same system using the Vereshchagin rule. It turned out that the equality of the special case was equal, but it was possible to extract the boundary conditions for the Mohr integrals from the Vereshchagin rule, thereby converting the fourth-order diffequation, which follows from the Mohr triple integral, into a system of lower-order differential equations. Taking into account the speed of the space system, orbit altitude, Coriolis acceleration and some other parameters, an exact formula was obtained for determining the error of positioning the Earth satellite when it was put into orbit by a robotic arm from the Burana cargo compartment.

It took another sleepless month.

But there was a pleasant moment, our scouts "helped". A low bow to them, it would not unload the next semester of trains at night at the Kharkov station. The climax took place on the defense of the project. The gathered professors from other departments squinted suspiciously and were ready to give way to emotions, realizing that this problem cannot be solved, let alone bring everything to a simple formula. But the status and risk did not allow them to get into the essence of the presentation, it is really impossible to constantly keep in mind all the subtleties of differential calculus and compromise without running into these issues every day. The situation was solved by vice-rector for science Artemenko Nikolai Pavlovich. By a lucky coincidence, he only received a massive Talmud from the "competent" authorities - the Americans solved this problem for their Challenger by the approximation method using their super computer. NASA experts have calculated all the possible options for orbits, loads and orientation in space. The result was a book of tables meter per meter kilogram by 15 with sufficient calculated discreteness. The scouts then got it, but there were concerns whether the Americans outplayed or slipped inaccurate data. As the scouts were able to steal it - I can’t imagine. It seems that back then the Americans did not have a fight against corruption.

They began to compare, Nikolai Pavlovich opens a table at random and names a number of parameters - the height of the orbit, the mass of the satellite, the direction of installation in orbit, etc.

I substitute this data into the formula and get the error. Compare. The difference was in the fourth decimal place. To understand: in a three hundred kilometer orbit, micron differences in positioning error. I think the inaccuracy of the American approximation method, the “infinite” approximation along the orbit slices, affected.

So, for mathematics there is nothing impossible. Even Plato understood that mathematics is the basis of philosophy. Plato did not undertake to teach the philosophy of people who did not possess the basic knowledge of mathematics of that time.

It is often possible to meet the dissociation of modern philosophers, political scientists who do not argue their arguments mathematically. The huge problem of modern humanities. It's like a cook controlling a spaceship. While he is moving in an automatic mode according to the course calculated by mathematicians and the cook gives an interview - everything is going as usual. But God forbid such cooks take control in their own hands, especially when there are millions of citizens on board ...

Later, after studying the questionnaire and official notes on candidate checks in more detail, I discovered that after the collapse of the USSR, the aforementioned specialist in calculating socially unstable situations worked for a long time in the USA in some private fund advising the US government.

The bearer of the methodology for calculating unstable situations could not help but share it with the subsequent employer. And the American government has allocated and is allocating enormous resources for scientific research, both public and private institutions related to social phenomena.

One RAND Corporation is worth it; more than 30 Nobel winners work within its walls. The theoretical foundations of the US victory in the Cold War, the arms race and the collapse of the Soviet Union were laid in such institutions.

Entire areas in mathematics have developed to solve the problems of victory in the global confrontation. An example is the development of game theory to solve strategic disarmament tasks.

There are many mathematical traces in strategic actions; person must be able to see them.

But a political scientist who does not know mathematics will not see this. Traces of mathematical calculations can be seen and understood by specialists involved in such calculations.

The simplest analysis shows that the critical values of the factors of social instability (in essence, setting the extreme values of the boundary conditions in the system of differential equations) will lead to extremes. That is, elementary, you want in the country of social tensions - ask the extreme conditions of social parameters or political trends and start actions in the direction of their achievements. What we see really happening on the territory of Ukraine for the past quarter century. This is a calculated “trace”. These are linguistic and religious extremes and the attempts of some politicians to fan national issues at one time. What is the last libertanism with the subsequent turn towards socialism? From the point of view of common sense - this is nonsense, from the point of view of achieving disorientation and tension in society - a directionally directed movement. And this is the stroke of the calculated trace. As if the cook was in orbit — she pressed the wrong button — they gave her a hand and forced her to press the right one.

Such extreme changes in the social system were introduced by top-level "servants" starting with Gorbachev - it makes no sense even to list all their "master" absurd, this work is perfectly done by the army of political strategists, historians and journalists. The result of the immense social imbalances of Ukrainian society and its progressive impoverishment has always been the economic improvement of the life of the former main “servant” and his family. That the Khatyn in Canada happened, the son-in-law of a billionaire, the bees also seemed to be carrying pollen and a son-dentist with a golden loaf. The higher the social tension, the more it was allowed to rob and put off in the West. With total global financial control, the origin of the funds is not a secret and is the “agreed” default position of the parties to the depositor and custodian. None of them sat down - this is the calculated parameter of guarantees. None of the servants were in poverty either during or after their “selfless” reigns. These are the same results of the calculated parameters. They understood that there would be nothing after them. So there were guarantees. Whose guarantees can carry the weight of the "final piece of paper" - only the owner of the settlement process. In the modern world, such local events as crisis in Ukraine are not only calculated, but also managed from a single centre. Desolation of political scientists, marketers modeling processes without mathematics, philosophers who do not know mathematics is nothing more than a controlled flight with “stuffed” hands of cooks in orbit, distracting from the main issues.

Where are the actual calculations for which we live? In fact, in the courtyard of 21 centuries, we are going to Mars. We are not spiders, not bees of any kind that would live only by instinct. A plan would need a strategic one, preferably a thousand years.

But Ukrainians do not have it. Other nations have, but Ukrainians do not. Therefore, the poor. Therefore, we are under external control.

No need to manage everything and everything. This is not realistic and mathematically impractical; it can only serve as a mechanism for distracting from strategic design parameters. For example, according to the strategy of a change of power, it does not matter when and how deeply a crisis breaks out - it is important to understand in what tentatively the period and direction of the extremes of dissatisfaction-expectations. In this case, you can intercept the initiative in time, target the following promises according to the identified extremes and go to the next round. The success of the new servant will be guaranteed. A new guide will be revealed to Ukrainians. Why you need only one "Susanin" as a guide - the answer is obvious. It is easier to buy one guide of the people, to seduce, to intimidate, to slander - in general, to put in a manageable framework, to make what the "robbers" need to do. For a couple of years - a completely solvable task. The remaining three years - it is possible to recoup more than costs. The calculation task, especially if there is something to grab the leader for.

One leader in society is an ideally solvable task of external governance of the country.

If we substitute young leaders of the government, controlled by a single external centre, headed by the Prime Minister, one of the main tasks of which is the system of turbo regime changes in regulatory documents in the country, this is an excellent way to aggravate the situation. An action similar to extinguishing a fire with gasoline. Such stupidity in nature does not happen, it can only be calculated. This is a sign of only a settlement mode.

By the way, the young brigade from the Office of Effective Regulation, which began operating under foreign money even under Yanukovych, began to fight in KM, a group in the Cabinet under Poroshenko blossomed, and power came from Zelensky’s hands. In general, the piquant tendency of two ex-presidents with open criminal cases and a sharp drop in the rating of the current one. It generally doesn’t look like calculated situations, just a coincidence. It is so simple that the incumbent President would create conditions from which he could not refuse.

If you want to calculate mathematically the system of hidden crisis imbalances in our time, an intelligent student, an undergraduate of the Physics and Mathematics Department, is already capable of it.

Another thing is to calculate the stable modes of functioning of society.

As shown by many years of experience in trying and tricks, it is not possible to solve the problem of calculating the social stability of society using generally accepted methods, for example, using a system of differential equations.

But there are other mathematical methods for solving such problems.

Perhaps, if we begin to introduce the calculated parameters of sustainable modes of development of society, it will be possible to notice specific “mathematical” traces that are noticeable in the social systems of the West.

True, "non-thieves" programs are usually published for discussion, and not in a hurry smuggled "not yet begun." But most importantly, society will feel such changes with relief and will probably understand that accidents in our world are extremely rare.

Elites of socially developed communities have long learned how to mathematically calculate risk-free scenarios, which would be nice to openly discuss and apply in Ukraine.


Date: 5 December 2019